Small Business Sentiment Index: entrepreneurs’ assessments and expectations

The European Business Association, within the framework of the Unlimit Ukraine project, in partnership with OLX Ukraine and UKRSIBBANK BNP Paribas Group, has conducted the 2025 Small Business Sentiment Index survey. The overall Index score remained unchanged at 2.3 out of 5. Despite this stabilisation, overall sentiment remains restrained, with no tangible improvement in the business climate.

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In 2025, the values of most Index components remained broadly in line with 2024 levels. The lowest score among the components was again given to the assessment of the economic situation — 1.9 points — while the highest scores were recorded for the assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months, both at 2.6 points.

Currently, 21% of entrepreneurs believe their business is performing well, while 31% assess the situation as neutral (compared to 27.5% in 2024). At the same time, the share of negative assessments decreased by 4 percentage points year-on-year and now stands at 48%.

Over the past six months, business assessments have stabilised: 56% of entrepreneurs reported a deterioration, 32% observed no change (6 percentage points higher than in 2024), and 12% reported improvements.

However, expectations for the next six months have become less optimistic. Only 21% of entrepreneurs anticipate improvement (previously 22%), while 48% expect the situation to worsen. The share of those expecting no change stands at 31%.

Entrepreneurs predominantly assess Ukraine’s overall economic situation negatively: 76% consider it unfavourable or catastrophic, and only 4% describe it as favourable.

Among businesses planning growth, priority areas include expanding the customer base (63%) and updating their range of services (42%). Notably, export activity has intensified: the share of companies operating in foreign markets increased from 17% in 2024 to 28% this year.

The proportion of entrepreneurs planning to attract external financing has declined markedly — from 62% last year to 53% in the current period. Businesses are increasingly relying on internal resources: the share of own funds as the primary source of financing rose to 51% (+4 percentage points). Other planned sources include grant programmes (12%), bank lending (12%) and investment capital (9%).

The assessment of access to bank lending has remained largely unchanged. 33% of entrepreneurs consider loans inaccessible or difficult to access, while 22% note that credit is accessible or that there are numerous offers available.

Businesses continue to make active use of digital channels. Marketplaces (32%) and social media (31%) have become the leading sales channels, while physical stores have lost their top position. The share of businesses operating almost entirely through digital channels (90–100% of turnover) has increased to 30%.

The key challenges for small businesses remain attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, rising prices, economic instability, the war and occupation of territories, as well as low purchasing power among the population.

Olena Ero Head of the Unlimit Ukraine project of the European Business Association

Despite the stabilisation of the Index scores, small businesses have shifted to a more conservative strategy, focusing on maintaining their positions and relying on their own resources. The key expectation from the state remains tackling corruption and reducing fiscal pressure.

Oksana Skorobrekha Head of Goods Sales in the European Region at OLX Ukraine

Small businesses in Ukraine continue to adapt to challenging conditions and actively use digital channels for development. We see entrepreneurs increasingly choosing marketplaces as their primary sales channel, enabling them to find customers faster and scale their businesses even amid uncertainty. OLX attracts around 24 million users per month, giving small businesses access to a broad audience without significant investment. Listing packages start from UAH 55 per month, making online sales accessible even for small producers.

Volodymyr Shevchenko Head of Retail Sales Department at UKRSIBBANK BNP Paribas Group

This research is extremely valuable to us, as it allows us to better understand how entrepreneurs assess their current situation, what decisions they make under uncertainty, and what they prioritise for development. These insights help us better respond to business needs by adapting our financial solutions, support programmes and educational initiatives to real entrepreneurial demands. We systematically support small businesses and are grateful to our partners for the opportunity to participate in such important projects that lay the groundwork for the sustainable development of entrepreneurship in Ukraine.

THE SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX has been conducted by the European Business Association since 2017 within the Unlimit Ukraine project. The purpose of the study is to monitor small business assessments and sentiment, as well as to analyse growth drivers that can stimulate its development. In 2025, the project partners were OLX Ukraine and UKRSIBBANK BNP Paribas Group. The survey was conducted from 1 to 31 December 2025 and involved 676 small business representatives.

Unlimit Ukraine is a development platform for small and micro businesses established under the European Business Association. The project provides comprehensive support through educational events and consultations, participation in international cooperation programmes, business diagnostics and discussions of pressing issues. Sole proprietors (FOPs) from small and micro businesses across all sectors are eligible to join. The platform currently brings together 9,000 SME representatives.