The moods of businesses in Ukraine have worsened in 2024 compared to 2023. Most of the respondents of the latest EBA survey, particularly 64% have reported the deterioration of their moods. Also, the moods of 28% of respondents have not changed, and the moods of 8% have improved. Among the key reasons for the changes in business sentiment, top managers mention the military situation, the situation with mobilization, and the delay and uncertainty over foreign aid (in particular, from the United States).
However, despite the low moods, the income forecasts are quite optimistic. Particularly, 2 out of 5 CEOs of the surveyed companies predict revenue growth in 2024. In 2024, the CEOs of the EBA member companies predict mostly positive or stable dynamics in the change in their business revenues. Thus, 41% of the surveyed CEOs expect an increase in revenues (in USD), 35% expect revenues to remain at the level of the previous year, and 24% predict a decrease in revenues. The assessment of revenue dynamics in natural volumes is almost identical.
These are the financial results forecasts from business leaders who took part in the new wave of the ‘Business during the war’ survey among EBA members for the first half of 2024.
Currently, 78% of EBA member companies are operating at full capacity, while 54% were fully operational a year ago. The number of companies with work restrictions continues to decline accordingly – from 46% last year to the current 21%. The most common restriction remains the reduction in the geography of companies’ operations. Currently, 1% of the surveyed companies are not working.
The majority of companies, namely 88%, pay salaries in full, while 15% pay bonuses or additional funds. At the same time, 43% of companies increased the level of salaries for their employees. The number of companies that will reduce wages or lay off staff in 2024 remains quite low, currently at 5% and 3%, respectively.
Business support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, in particular, for their employees in the armed forces remains high: 57% of respondents continue to provide financial support. In addition, 45% supply their products for the needs of the Armed Forces and vulnerable populations, 26% provide services, 18% help with medicines, and 12% supply protection/defense equipment. The volume of business support to the army and population has remained consistently high since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Businesses remain financially stable despite significant losses from the war. Currently, 46% of the surveyed companies have financial reserves for more than a year, 19% – for a year, 24% – for six months, and 6% – for several months.
At the beginning of 2024, losses from the war for 36% of the surveyed companies amounted to up to $1 million. At the same time, 39% report losses in the range of $1-10 million, and 11% report losses of more than $10 million. The total losses of the respondents of the current wave of the survey as a result of russian aggression amount to at least $650 million. In addition, the stability of the operational processes of 70% of the surveyed companies is affected by air alerts, which force companies to suspend operations.
90% of the EBA member companies surveyed have employees mobilized into the armed forces. In half of the companies, namely 51%, the number of mobilized employees reaches up to 10% of the total number of persons liable for military service. In 27% of companies, the number of mobilized persons reaches 10-20%, in 6% – 20-30%, and in 4% – more than 30% of the total number of persons liable for military service. More than half, including 52% of companies, reports that among those mobilized or volunteered are critical specialists for the company’s operations, including managers, narrowly specialized engineers, IT specialists, technologists, electricians, mechanics, and operators.
“Business in Ukraine continues to operate and demonstrate financial results even in such a difficult environment. We see a gradual but steady trend towards a recovery in business activity and financial performance starting in 2022. At the same time, a lot will depend on international support in the future - whether it will remain at the same level that would allow us to maintain a stable front line and macroeconomic situation. We hope that the discussions around this issue, including in the United States, will be resolved in favor of supporting Ukraine because the future of our country and the whole of Europe depends on it”, comments Anna Derevyanko, Executive Director of the European Business Association and Co-Founder of Global Business for Ukraine.
For reference:
The survey was conducted from February 16 to March 7, 2024, with 94 top managers of EBA member companies taking part in it.