What businesses in Ukraine can expect in 2026. Results of the Global Outlook

The GB4U together with the European Business Association has launched the new business season by bringing together representatives of government institutions, international organisations, and business at its traditional annual event “Global Outlook: Strategic Momentum”.

The event was opened by the Co-founder of Global Business for Ukraine and EBA Executive Director, Anna Derevyanko, who presented the results of the Business Forecast 2026 survey, reflecting business sentiment and expectations for the year ahead.

Financial Prospects

During the panel “Financial Outlook. Trends and Transformations”, participants discussed the main financial trends and challenges.

Andriy Pyshnyi, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, spoke about progress in negotiations with the IMF:

“The financial sector deserves a high level of trust. We have recently completed stress testing of the banking system, and the results confirm its strong resilience. One of the key issues in negotiations with the IMF now is the formation of the state budget for 2026. The current three-year cooperation programme with the Fund has been successful for Ukraine and has ensured stable financing. We are now discussing the prospects of a new programme, which should become the next step in support.”

The NBU Governor also elaborated on the draft law on virtual assets, recently adopted at first reading, which is expected to bring the market out of the shadows and ensure its effective regulation.

Bob Saum, World Bank Regional Director for Eastern Europe, emphasised that Ukraine’s financial stability in the coming year will depend on reforms and international support. According to him, the state’s priority is EU accession. To achieve this, Ukraine needs to focus on four areas: 1) macroeconomic stability; 2) reconstruction of critical infrastructure; 3) support for the private sector and de-shadowing; 4) social changes – from pension reform to veteran support.

Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, shared his economic growth forecasts:

“In 2025, we expect GDP growth of 2%, and in 2026 – about 1.5%. Despite challenges, Ukraine will finish this year with record foreign exchange reserves of $52 billion.”

He also highlighted the most attractive sectors for investment, which for Dragon Capital include banking, energy, infrastructure, and real estate in Lviv and the region. However, according to him, most foreign investors are waiting for the active phase of the war to end.

Alla Biniashvili, Management Board Member of OTP Bank, outlined the state of the banking system:

“The banking sector is highly liquid. When we look at bank balances, we see that liabilities – deposits and account balances – are twice as high as assets. The reason for this is uncertainty. Most companies are reluctant to invest in projects due to the war and related risks. Yet we are growing, the banking sector is developing. If we take OTP Bank, we have grown by 35% in hryvnia in just half a year, adding 6 billion hryvnias compared to the beginning of the year.”

She noted that the main drivers of lending are agriculture, the food industry, and both wholesale and retail trade. In her view, in 2026, renewable energy will become such a driver.

Vitalii Vereshchagin, CEO of Caparol, spoke about the state of the construction industry in 2025. He noted that it has shrunk by almost half since the start of the war, yet demand remains. The strongest growth, he said, is observed in western Ukraine, especially in Zakarpattia. However, business continues to develop most actively in the capital and large cities such as Lviv, Odesa, and Vinnytsia.

Business Forecasts

At the “Business Outlook. Challenges and Strategies” panel, participants discussed business development strategies under wartime conditions.

Oleksandr Komarov, CEO of Kyivstar, spoke about the company’s entry onto the Nasdaq exchange:

“Listing on Nasdaq has not changed our day-to-day operations, but it has increased our responsibility and opened up new opportunities for us.”

He also emphasised that Kyivstar is actively restoring its infrastructure after enemy attacks. The company now operates over 16,000 sites, even more than before the start of the full-scale invasion. Next year, Oleksandr and his team will continue transforming Kyivstar from a telecom company into a digital services group.

Andrii Lavrenovych, HRD of General Chereshnia FPV, highlighted the challenges of the defence industry:

“Staff shortages and lack of components are the main barriers to growth. The shortage of microchips is particularly acute, as they are predominantly produced in China.”

Andrii stressed that the state must increase funding for miltech and open arms exports.

Volodymyr Lavrenchuk, Country Manager of NEQSOL Holding in Ukraine, underlined the importance of attracting investment into the extractive industry and modernising production. According to him, without modernisation of production processes, subsoil use in Ukraine will remain low-margin. Therefore, work must be done on transparency, creating a database, and assessing mineral reserves, as these form the foundation for future investment programmes.

Olena Voloshyna, Head of IFC Operations in Ukraine, spoke about supporting business across different sectors of the economy and summed up the business panel:

“IFC supports businesses in key sectors—banking and agriculture—and provides trade finance to Ukrainian banks to support import operations. We are optimistic about the future: if Ukrainian businesses have managed not only to resume operations but also to continue developing amid the war, imagine their potential after victory.”

The GB4U and the EBA sincerely thanks the general partners of the event – Kyivstar and OTP Bank – for their contribution to the organisation of the event! We also express our gratitude to Coca-Cola, METRO Cash & Carry, Save a Limb, and HOUP.org for their support.