Business plans and prognoses for 2026. ‘Business Forecast’ survey results

The average USD exchange rate projected in company budgets for the upcoming 2026 by executives of the European Business Association’s member companies stands at UAH 46 per USD. For comparison, the rate used for 2025 was UAH 44, and UAH 41 in 2024.

These are the findings of the EBA’s “Business Forecasts for 2026” survey.

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This year’s research reflects a predominantly positive outlook for business development in 2026, with 55% of respondents anticipating positive dynamics (compared to 53% last year). Around 30% of business leaders expect no significant changes, while 15% foresee a negative trend.

Financial forecasts have slightly improved: the share of executives expecting revenue growth in UAH terms rose from 72% to 77%, while those predicting a decline fell from 15% to 12%. 

30% of directors expect revenue growth of up to 10% in UAH; 33% project growth of 11–20%; 14%anticipate an increase of more than 21%; 11% aim to maintain current performance levels.

Meanwhile, 60% of respondents expect revenue growth in real (volume) terms, and 55% in USD terms (up from 46% and 43% in 2025, respectively). Revenue decline in both real and USD terms is anticipated by 15% of businesses.

Expectations regarding the war’s end vary: 29% of member companies are planning for the possibility that hostilities will end in 2026; 19% do not anticipate an end to the war next year; 52%refrain from making any projections on this matter.

The share of companies planning large investment projects in 2026 increased to 20%, with the average value of planned projects reaching USD 14 million. In comparison, for 2025, 16% of member companies had planned such projects, with an average investment of USD 9 million.

However, the number of companies planning investments in social initiatives continues to decline. In 2026, 55% of companies intend to invest in social projects, with an average allocation of 3% of company revenue. In 2025 and 2024, this share stood at 59% and 65%, respectively, with an average allocation of 6% in both years.

A growing trend is the use of artificial intelligence (AI): 74% of companies plan to implement AI tools in 2026 to optimise or enhance business operations. This reflects the increasing role of AI and automation in business processes and may be a response to the growing talent shortage. Companies plan to use AI primarily for training, boosting analytical efficiency, streamlining routine tasks, planning procurement and sales, as well as in marketing, accounting, and customer communication.

Top priorities for the Government in 2026 have slightly shifted. In addition to traditional concerns such as combating corruption (60%), judicial reform and rule of law (54%), and macroeconomic stability (35%), a new priority emerged: fulfilling Ukraine’s obligations as an EU candidate country (36%). This addition underlines the growing importance of EU integration not only for Ukrainian society but also for businesses operating in the country.

Anna Derevyanko Co-founder of Global Business for Ukraine and Executive Director of the European Business Association

We observe stable and cautiously optimistic forecasts for the coming year from businesses that continue to operate and plan in Ukraine. Despite entering the fourth year of full-scale war, companies are expecting improvements in financial performance and are expanding their investment ambitions. We hope the government will act as a partner and support the implementation of these plans, particularly by advancing reforms and fulfilling EU integration commitments, which business leaders emphasised in this year’s survey.

For reference: The “Business Forecasts for 2026” survey gathered responses from 80 executives of EBA member companies. The survey was conducted from 14 August to 3 September 2025. This marks the 10th consecutive year the EBA has conducted the “Business Forecasts” research.